The World Steel Association predicts that the global "steel demand" will continue to grow to 1,849.1 million tons by 2024
On October 17, the World Steel Association released the latest short-term (2023-2024) steel demand forecast report. According to the report, global steel demand is expected to recover by 1.8% in 2023, reaching 1,814.5 million tons after falling 3.3% in 2022. In 2024, it increased by 1.9% year-on-year to 1,849.1 million tons.
The global steel market is already feeling the adverse effects of the high inflation and high interest rate environment. From the second half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, with the weakening of investment and consumption momentum, most of the global steel market is cooling sharply. The World Steel Association said that taking into account the delayed effect of tightening monetary policy, steel demand in developed economies will slowly recover in 2024, steel demand in emerging economies will grow faster than developed economies, and emerging Asian economies will maintain better development resilience.
Under the premise of stable real estate, China's "steel demand" will increase by 2.0% year-on-year
But the outlook for demand in 2024 is uncertain
The World Steel Association predicts that under the premise of stable development of infrastructure investment and real estate industry, China's steel demand will increase by 2.0% in 2023.
The report pointed out that in the first half of this year, China's real estate investment confidence continued to weaken, the intention to start new construction remains low, and the reduction of new housing construction area has dampened construction activity and will continue to affect steel demand in 2024. However, the Chinese government is vigorously promoting project construction, and China's infrastructure investment will maintain its growth momentum in 2023. On top of this, the Chinese government may also launch some additional infrastructure projects. Therefore, the World Steel Association expects China's infrastructure investment to maintain moderate positive growth in 2023 and 2024. In addition, although the real estate market continued to slump in 2022 will put pressure on China's economic growth, the Chinese government has actively taken measures to stabilize the economy since July this year, and the real estate market is expected to stabilize in the second half of this year. The report also predicts that China's manufacturing industry will maintain moderate growth in 2023, of which the household appliances industry will show strong growth.
The outlook for Chinese steel demand in 2024 is uncertain. The World Steel Association said that under the premise of infrastructure investment and stable development of the real estate industry, China's steel demand is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2023, but the operating pressure of the real estate market remains. Without additional policy support, China's steel demand is likely to contract in 2024, or remain at 2023 levels. If the stimulus is weaker than expected, Chinese steel demand faces downside risks both this year and next.
