Global "steel demand" is expected to rebound slightly to 1.772 billion tonnes in 2025
The World Steel Association believes that it is about to enter the stage of moderate growth of "steel demand"
On October 14, Worldsteel released its latest short-term (2024-2025) steel demand forecast. According to the report, global steel demand will fall by a further 0.9% to 1.751 billion tonnes in 2024. It is expected that after three years of continuous decline in steel demand, global steel demand will rebound by 1.2% in 2025, reaching 1.772 billion tons.
The World Steel Association expects steel demand in China and most major developed economies to decline significantly in 2024. In sharp contrast, India will maintain strong growth momentum. In 2024-2025, steel demand in India is expected to grow significantly. In 2024, steel demand will rebound in most other major developing economies.
Wsa expects that the ongoing downturn in China's real estate sector will continue to affect its steel demand, which is expected to decline by 3.0% in 2024 and further to 1.0% in 2025. The 2025 forecast is subject to upward revision. The World Steel Association believes that the Chinese government is increasingly likely to intervene and support the real economy on a larger scale, which is likely to boost Chinese steel demand in 2025. In addition, steel demand in developing countries (excluding China) will grow by 3.5% and 4.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, driven by strong growth in steel demand in India and a rebound in demand in other major emerging economies. Since 2021, India has become the strongest driver of steel demand growth. Between 2024 and 2025, WSA expects India's steel demand to grow by 8.0%. This is due to the continued growth of demand in its all-use steel industry, especially the continued strong growth of demand in the infrastructure investment industry. Meanwhile, steel demand in the world's other emerging economies, such as the Middle East and North Africa region and the ASEAN region, is expected to rebound in 2024. With steel demand forecasts for major steel-using economies such as the United States, Japan, South Korea and Germany significantly reduced, the World Steel Association expects steel demand in developed countries to decline by 2.0% in 2024 and grow by 1.9% in 2025.
Martin Theuringer, Chairman of Worldsteel's Market Research Committee, said: "2024 will undoubtedly be a difficult year in terms of global steel demand, as the global manufacturing sector continues to face multiple difficulties such as declining household purchasing power, significant monetary tightening and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. In addition, housing construction continues to be weak due to financing difficulties and high costs, further exacerbating the downturn in steel demand. In this context, we have significantly lowered our 2024 steel demand forecast for most major economies, including China."
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